I’ve actually been keeping these logs for a year now, somehow.
Notable releases with odds of charting this month are releases of Space Dandy and Unbreakable Machine Doll, with multiple BD editions and their best-ranked versions in the 1000s. All data displayed here was taken on February 23rd, 2015.
Pokemon Collectors Set
Yakitate!! Japan, Part 1
Outbreak Company: Complete Collection
Outbreak Company: Complete Collection [Blu-ray]
Ranma 1/2: TV Series Set 5
Ranma 1/2 TV Series Set 5 Limited Edition (Blu-ray)
Unbreakable Machine Doll (Blu-ray/DVD Combo)
Unbreakable Machine Doll (Linited Edition Blu-ray/DVD Conbo)
Space Dandy: Season 1 (Blu-ray/DVD Combo)
Space Dandy: Season 1 (Limited Edition Blu-ray/DVD Combo)
Space Dandy: Season 1 – The Aloha Oe Crew Edition – Amazon Exclusive (Blu-ray/DVD Combo)
World God Only Knows Goddesses
World God Only Knows Goddesses [Blu-ray]
Familiar of Zero: Knight of the Twin Moons
Familiar of Zero: Knight of the Twin Moons [Blu-ray]
Fairy Tail: Part 15 (Blu-ray/DVD Combo)
Devils and Realist
Devils and Realist [Blu-ray]
Bleach Uncut Set 24
School Rumble: First Semester & OVA’s S.A.V.E.
Armitage III: Movie Collection Classic
Place to Place: Complete Collection
Place to Place: Complete Collection [Blu-ray]
Pokémon: BW Adventures in Unova and Beyond Set 2 (DVD)
Student Council’s Discretion
Student Council’s Discretion [Blu-ray]
Gingitsune: Complete Collection
Gingitsune: Complete Collection [Blu-ray]
Harlock: Space Pirate
Sankarea: Complete Series (Uncut) (Blu-ray/DVD Combo)
What does the scouter say about Space Dandy sales?
I think there’s a ~20% chance we may not get them. It has 3 total editions, but we’re in the pre-release Thursday and the best-selling version is around #1200, with the other editions around #10,000 each (though one was at 40,000 yesterday). Titans p2 (sold 10,677 w1) was around #400 at this point in time, and p1 (sold 11,748 w1) was at #250 with another edition at #5000. My best-guess formula (which has plenty of holes), pegs those values’ worth in terms of copies sold per day like so:
There’s still a lot of variance in there, but right now Dandy could be argued to be getting a similar amount of preorders on amazon as Titan p2 was. Like Titan p2, it has a Walmart exclusive, and may see similar amounts of non-amazon business. I have no idea how the demographic breakdown will help or hurt it, but iirc Dandy got weaker TV ratings than Titan did.
If the demos are similar *and* the formula is fairly accurate *and* the similarity to Titan p2 holds up through release week, it should break 10,000 copies sold in its first week. We may or may not see it – the majority of thresholds over the past month would be permissive to such a total, but two weeks recently had BD thresholds at 12k and 15k. There’s still a crapton of uncertainty involved – I’ll be a little more comfortable making a call next week when it’s officially been released for a couple of days – but it seems like it’ll do well regardless of whether we get specific totals or not.