I’ve actually been keeping these logs for a year now, somehow.
Notable releases with odds of charting this month are releases of Space Dandy and Unbreakable Machine Doll, with multiple BD editions and their best-ranked versions in the 1000s. All data displayed here was taken on February 23rd, 2015.
Format:
Release Title
[$price; rank]
—
March 3
Pokemon Collectors Set
[N/A; 81,373]
Yakitate!! Japan, Part 1
[$50; 56,842]
Outbreak Company: Complete Collection
[$60; 19,123]
Outbreak Company: Complete Collection [Blu-ray]
[$70; 12,537]
Ranma 1/2: TV Series Set 5
[$45; 53,436]
Ranma 1/2 TV Series Set 5 Limited Edition (Blu-ray)
[$55; 8498]
Unbreakable Machine Doll (Blu-ray/DVD Combo)
[$65; 1505]
Unbreakable Machine Doll (Linited Edition Blu-ray/DVD Conbo)
[$70; 27,185]
Space Dandy: Season 1 (Blu-ray/DVD Combo)
[$65; 31,213]
Space Dandy: Season 1 (Limited Edition Blu-ray/DVD Combo)
[$70; 1233]
Space Dandy: Season 1 – The Aloha Oe Crew Edition – Amazon Exclusive (Blu-ray/DVD Combo)
[$130; 12,105]
March 10
World God Only Knows Goddesses
[$60; 35,050]
World God Only Knows Goddesses [Blu-ray]
[$70; 13,322]
Familiar of Zero: Knight of the Twin Moons
[$50; 59,236]
Familiar of Zero: Knight of the Twin Moons [Blu-ray]
[$60; 11,441]
Fairy Tail: Part 15 (Blu-ray/DVD Combo)
[$55; 1596]
March 17
Devils and Realist
[$50; 40,273]
Devils and Realist [Blu-ray]
[$60; 59,427]
Bleach Uncut Set 24
[$45; 10,970]
March 24
School Rumble: First Semester & OVA’s S.A.V.E.
[$30; 67,984]
Armitage III: Movie Collection Classic
[$30; 47,236]
Place to Place: Complete Collection
[$50; 62,432]
Place to Place: Complete Collection [Blu-ray]
[$60; 49,571]
Pokémon: BW Adventures in Unova and Beyond Set 2 (DVD)
[$27; 40,641]
Student Council’s Discretion
[$50; 43,455]
Student Council’s Discretion [Blu-ray]
[$60; 42,363]
March 31
Gingitsune: Complete Collection
[$50; 97,310]
Gingitsune: Complete Collection [Blu-ray]
[$60; 60,850]
Harlock: Space Pirate
[$21; 7372]
Sankarea: Complete Series (Uncut) (Blu-ray/DVD Combo)
[$60; 20,327]
What does the scouter say about Space Dandy sales?
I think there’s a ~20% chance we may not get them. It has 3 total editions, but we’re in the pre-release Thursday and the best-selling version is around #1200, with the other editions around #10,000 each (though one was at 40,000 yesterday). Titans p2 (sold 10,677 w1) was around #400 at this point in time, and p1 (sold 11,748 w1) was at #250 with another edition at #5000. My best-guess formula (which has plenty of holes), pegs those values’ worth in terms of copies sold per day like so:
250: 702
400: 572
1200: 347
5000: 170
10000: 114
There’s still a lot of variance in there, but right now Dandy could be argued to be getting a similar amount of preorders on amazon as Titan p2 was. Like Titan p2, it has a Walmart exclusive, and may see similar amounts of non-amazon business. I have no idea how the demographic breakdown will help or hurt it, but iirc Dandy got weaker TV ratings than Titan did.
If the demos are similar *and* the formula is fairly accurate *and* the similarity to Titan p2 holds up through release week, it should break 10,000 copies sold in its first week. We may or may not see it – the majority of thresholds over the past month would be permissive to such a total, but two weeks recently had BD thresholds at 12k and 15k. There’s still a crapton of uncertainty involved – I’ll be a little more comfortable making a call next week when it’s officially been released for a couple of days – but it seems like it’ll do well regardless of whether we get specific totals or not.