Fun With Numbers: Torne DVR Rankings Predicting the Summer 2013 Disk Over/Unders

Quick recap: I’m taking a look at various no-cost indicators of popularity for anime and their related goods. First, I’m checking how well they correspond to disk sales by checking whether different applications of that statistic beat the null “every v1 will sell less than 4000 disks” accuracy criterion for a given season (66% for Fall, 59% for Summer). Later I’ll check how well these indicators corresponded to boosts in manga/LN source popularity (for works that were originally LN/manga), to contrast their predictive abilities at both high-cost and low-cost levels of interest.

I’ve already looked at the torne DVR ranks for Fall, now I’m doing the same for summer, where the accuracy of null hypothesis test is 59%. The results are listed below, with the lists and detailed breakdowns here. Less than 15 shows made the rankings for August and September, so I didn’t do a top 15 check for those two.

Summer2013-torne-compDespite some changes in what the top 5/10 were, none of these selection criteria did better than the null hypothesis, which is a pretty bleak sign for the rankings as a disk-sales picker given its middling Fall results (though obviously the jury’s still out on manga/LN boosts).

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