Fun With Numbers: Berserk’s Third Movie Offers an Upper Bound on US Amazon Sales Projections

I’m officially done tracking US release data for the month of April, and the full data is here, if you care to check. I’m not posting a full summary; a lot of things got released, and I’m at the point where each month of data isn’t going to revolutionize my results. But there was one neat null result I got out of this month. The BD for Berserk’s third movie (Golden Age: Advent) put up the best release week of any release I’ve tracked to date, spending the majority of the days between April 15 and April 20 in triple digit rankings. Despite this performance, and a healthy amount of preorder ranking, it failed to crack the top 20 on the US BD charts (preorders are counted in first-week totals).

I’ve been collecting older BD charts via the Numbers for two months now (they’re about 2-3 months delayed from the present time), and those (from January and February in particular), suggest that a release needs to move between 10,000 and 20,000 BD units to crack the number 20 slot in any given week. Therefore, any amazon-rank fit I use to try and convert the numbers into approximate sales figures should be able to take that Berserk data from March 25 through April 20 and come out with a sales figure below at least 20,000, possibly below 10,000 (I’ll have more exact figures in a few months when the Numbers catches up to that week). That’s not a super-tight constraint, but it’ll help me clean out some of the more egregious overestimates in trying to fit the data (this may or may not disqualify the fit I used on the March data, which projects the movie at just a hair under 16,000 copies).

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3 thoughts on “Fun With Numbers: Berserk’s Third Movie Offers an Upper Bound on US Amazon Sales Projections

  1. Pingback: Fun With Numbers: May US Amazon Data and Attack on Titan’s Nonzero Shot at the US BD Charts | Animetics

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