This column is motivated by a discussion I had two months ago, about whether ARMS, a studio with Queen’s Blade and Hagure Yuusha no Estetica in its recent past, could really pull a good anime out of the Maoyu franchise, even with the writer/director team behind Spice and Wolf helming said show. It was a long, drawn-out debate, and it got me thinking: what names were really most important (in terms of both quality and sales) in predicting how an anime will do? For anime fans without enough time to watch every first episode in a season, it’s certainly an important question. I’ll be attempting to approach the answer to this question by remove my own biases from the equation as much as I can.
Before I do this comparison, I need to introduce some statistics, in order to allow blind comparisons and effectively illustrate my point. As far as I can tell, one of at least 4 main traits is required for a successful series: Japanese DVD/Bluray sales, Licensing in the U.S. Market (and hence percieved profitability in the states), U.S. popularity, and agreed-upon quality level (aka the “test-of-time” factor). Japanese unit sales and U.S. licensing data are readily available. Note that I will count releases in U.S. markets by companies such as Aniplex USA as a license. However, as a consequence of the non-public status of U.S. companies, U.S. sales data are not. And there is no agreed-upon single measurement of critical consensus. For the purpose of getting some handle on these latter two factors, I employ popularity and rank statistics available on myanimelist.net (to my knowledge, the largest such anime listing platform). It’s not perfect, and these numbers should be regarded with more scrutiny, but the numbers involved for the average show (~10k viewers per show, user base of greater than 100k) give a decent enough sample size.
To avoid overloading you with numbers, I’ve computed the averages of these statistics and display them below. DVD/Bluray sales are measured in units, the more the better. A U.S. license is 1, a lack of license is zero (so a group with 3 shows and 1 license, they would have a value of 0.33). MAL Popularity and Ranking are given with 1 as the highest, for a hypothetical group making only the second season of Gintama (did I mention MAL numbers were imperfect?), with a higher number being worse. For a general rule of thumb; I’m thinking >3000 (the profit line), >0.5 (every other show licensed), <1000 (ranked higher than Un-Go), <600 (more popular than Redline) are good benchmarks for success vs. failure.
Data is selected from shows airing from Winter 2009 to Fall 2012, compiled with the timely help of Sam and plenty of elbow grease. The goal is to have statistics fairly relevant to current anime.
For each “group”, you’ll see square brackets with five numbers in it, like so:
[average JP DVD sales of first volume, License rate, MAL Rank, MAL Popularity, Total # of Shows]
Group A: [6658, 0.54, 1369, 594, 13]
Group B: [13000, 0.40, 64, 377, 5]
Group C: [2695, 0.63, 2184, 729, 8]
Group D: [7371, 0.78, 845, 347 , 9]
Group E: [2411, 0.33, 1580, 792, 3]
Group F: [1918, 0.50, 1542, 990, 20]
Group G: [1918, 0.38, 735, 866, 16]
Group H: [Not Available, 1.00, 4771, 1483, 4]
Group I: [4667.6, 0.63, 1301, 645, 30]
Group J: [21660, 0.50, 490, 300, 6]
Group K: [18513, 0.80, 661, 856, 5]
Group L: [8537, 0.63, 1307, 801, 8]
Group M: [6978, 0.73, 1540, 762, 22]
Now, how exactly you value each of these groups depends on how you weight these individual statistics. I’d order these groups like this, prioritizing # of success-level rankings in each category, then Japanese DVD sales, then license number, then MAL Popularity, then MAL rank.
God Tier (all requirements):
1. Group D: [7371, 0.78, 845, 347 , 9]
Damn well rounded. I don’t care about the odds, I wouldn’t bet against anything this group did. That money’s staying in my wallet where I can use it to buy their shows.
Top Tier (3/4 requirements):
2.Group K: [18513, 0.80, 661, 856, 5]
3. Group J: [21660, 0.50, 490, 300, 6]
K and J are within 3000 DVD sales of each other, and K enjoys a healthy advantage in U.S. commercial viability, which puts it over J’s greater online following.
4. Group B: [13000, 0.40, 64, 377, 5]
5. Group A: [6658, 0.54, 1369, 594, 13]
B kicks mad at DVD sales and online popularity, which I’d take in a pinch over a slightly greater license number.
Solid Tier (2/4 requirements):
6. Group L: [8537, 0.63, 1307, 801, 8]
7. Group M: [6978, 0.73, 1540, 762, 22]
8. Group I: [4667.6, 0.63, 1301, 645, 30]
Of these 3, all meet criterion for DVD sales and licensing rates. M has a slightly higher license rate, but L has better DVD sales and rank. I rounds out the group as the one with the most popularity.
Shaky Tier (1/4 requirments):
9.Group C: [2695, 0.63, 2184, 729, 8]
10. Group G: [1918, 0.38, 735, 866, 16]
11. Group H: [Not Available, 1.00, 4771, 1483, 4]
C does a little better with DVDs and has a respectable license rate, whrereas G at least enjoys some critical appeal. H’s credentials feel fairly sketchy.
Unreliable Tier (0/4 requirements met):
12. Group F: [1918, 0.50, 1542, 990, 20]
13. Group E: [2411, 0.33, 1580, 792, 3]
F seems a little more well-rounded than E, and has made more shows. Wouldn’t take either in a pinch; I’d probably rather just get started on the new HBO show Aaron Sorkin is doing if I had a choice between that and either of these.
If you have any issues with the way I’ve compiled these statistics or the way I’ve made this ranking, now would be a great time to get down in the comments and let me know.
Now let’s get theatrical for a second. Here’s the same list, but with the real names of the groups instead of aliases.
1. Bones (studio)
2. Kishi Seiji (director)
3. Kyoto Animation (studio)
4. Takahiro Oomori (director)
5. Brains Base (studio)
6. Tsutomu Mizushima (director)
7. Summer 2012 Season Average
8. J.C. Staff (studio)
9. Brains Base without anything directed by Takahiro Omori
10. Madhouse without the Marvel anime
12. Madhouse (studio)
13. Mizushima Seiji (director)
Before I go on to say what I think this all means, some general points that jumped out at me while I was pulling data. 1. Studio Bones gives opportunites to lots of different directors. The 9 series they put out over this 4-year period had 8 different directors (Hitoshi Nanba did both Heroman and Gosick). 2. Taking Takahiro Omori away from Brains Base would result in the anime equivalent of taking Peyton Manning away from the 2011 Indianapolis Colts. Without him, they would kinda be sub-mediocre.
Anyways, what can be drawn from this arcane list? Well, first of all, I can start eating the foot I put in my my mouth when I said Studio Bones’ name didn’t matter 2 days ago. Second, if one uses the Summer 2012 season stats as a dividing line, and removing Brains Base/Takahiro Omori (since I can’t assume one is more important), you have 2 directors and 2 studios who play above the season average, and 2 studios and 1 director below. This suggests that a bigger-name director is slightly more likely to get you a better show than a big name studio, although it’s not very strong evidence. The most interesting piece is the above-noted Omori/Brains Base contrast, but Brains Base maybe a special case, since it is one of the few studios to rely on a single director to that extent (save perhaps SHAFT, which is just Akiyuki Shinbo’s anime factory, but there’s nothing to contrast there).
In summary, Bones is godly, but I don’t really find strong evidence that Studios or Directors have a universal hold on what makes an anime good. Still, one could definitely do well to memorize the names in the above list’s top 5.
Expect me to throw a few more names into the mix over the next couple of weeks (SHAFT/Shinbou, less reputable studios and directors) to see if there’s any connection here I’m overlooking. In the meanwhile, feel free to critique my methods/share your own studio/staff-related opinions in the comments!
http://www.anidb.net/ (studio and person resumes)
http://www.myanimelist.net (rough English-speaking popularity and esteem)
http://www.animenewsnetwork.com (license status)
http://www.mania.com/aodvb/showthread.php?p=2010472#post2010472 (JP DVD sales figures)