If the anime blogoshpere were a field of corn, and each post that summarized the spring 2013 season were a corn husk, then you could stand in the middle of it and toss a match in any direction, and end up with something on the order of 10 gallons of popcorn. And some third degree burns. Um.

So, what I mean to say is this; seasonal anime preview posts are really a saturated field. But we like anime, and we want to cover it, too. Thus, we labored hard to find a hipster angle, and we found it; instead of putting up a dime a dozen post, we’re putting a dozen dimes on the post. In simpler terms, we’re taking mad bets on the upcoming Spring 2013 lineup, Vegas-style!

The basic idea of this little exercise in controlled stupidity is simple; Drew makes odds on a variety of ridiculous and not-so-ridiculous topics, guessing how likely it will be and summarizing his 5 most-likely to succeed in each category, and Sam and Will bet on them with the goal of coming out with a net profit. The point of the exercise is that each panelist has their own ideas as to how things will turn out, and this way we can turn these disputes into unequivocal bragging rights beatdowns.

The Actual Rules:
1. Each show has a multiplier associated with it for each category, with a lower multiplier corresponding to higher odds of success. Betting on Fate/zero to be a popular show should not be given equal value with a surprise long-shot hit like, say, Koutoura-san.
2. There are 8 total categories.
3. Will and Sam each get 100 Woolongs to bet on each category, 800 Woolongs total.
4. All of their funds must be wagered. Ya gotta go all-in! But you can spread it out however you like within the category.
5. Any net profit means the bettor wins. 801 Woolongs or more means victory, 799 or less means defeat, and 800 means you’re a witch/pillar man and must be burned.
6. “Winner” gets bragging rights and the unenviable position of making odds come summer.

If you’d like to see a full list of the odds we’re using, feast your eyes on this spreadsheet.

All set? You don’t care? Awesome, on to the betting!

Category #1: Will be most popular show on myanimelist.net in June

Drew’s Top 5 Handicaps:
1. Attack on Titan (x1.5) – Really, betting on anything else is wasted money. It’s a popular-ass manga getting a high-ass budget from Production I.G. And it’s exactly the kind of thing swim-grown American audiences devour; dark, gritty, and superior action.
2. OreImo 2 (x2) – If you need a dark horse, I’d take this sequel to this extremely popular and fairly recent show which has been keeping up some buzz and leads mal in plan-to-watch tally
3. Hentai Ouji to Warawanai Neko (x2.5) – There always seems to be one school romance series that steps away from the pack in any given season. I’m giving it to this one because the plot summary seems like it’s trying to be a tiny bit serious, even if the PV is raunchy.
4. Suisei no Gargantia (x2.5) – Stuff scripted by Urobuchi Gen usually outperforms expectations, and this one as been his hardest show yet to get a read on.
5. Date a Live (x2.5) – If somehow audiences are split over Titan and the other top 4, enough might fall for a combination of harem comedy and supernatural action to sneak this one onto the top of the rankings.

Will: 100 on Attack on Titan. Hype everywhere, very safe bet. Even if this does lose, there are ways to make it up. I see the others doing well, but not as well.

Sam: 50 on Attack on Titan, 50 on Devil Survivor. Attack on Titan is a pretty sure bet, and Devil Survivor is a show in the vein of persona, which should resonate well with people, if past experiences are true.

Category #2: Movie announced before July

Drew’s Top 5 Handicaps:
1. A Certain Scientific Railgun S (x4) – It kind of feels like the A Certain _ _ series is due for a movie at this point, but it still might not happen.
2. Suisei no Gargantia (x5) – I get Star Driver vibes from this one, in some odd fashion. But I don’t know if that’ll make it come so early or not.
3. Devil Survivor 2 (x5) – Atlus’s brand hawking, and Kishi Seiji’s movie career, have been really aggressive of late.
4. OreImo 2 (x6) – Similar to number 1 above, I feel like this series could come due at any time.
5. Arata Kangatari (x8) – It comes from Weekly Shonen Jump, so a large-scale fanbase could very possibly emerge and get producers to jump the bait.

Will: 45 each on Gargantia and DS2, 7 on Majestic Prince, 3 on Hyakka Ryouran. I don’t really know about movies, so I’m just going with the safe bets that I’m most feeling, and I just felt like betting on Majestic Prince and Hyakka Ryouran.

Sam: 100 on Railgun, as the movie just premiered last month.  (“Derp.” -Drew G.)
Otherwise, 50 on devil survivor and 50 on valvrave. both seem like they could get big enough to warrant movies. However, movies are usually announced after series are over, and both of those series will be 2 cours, meaning that the movie would not be announced before july, probably being announced if they happen in september or october.

Category #3: Will have a major PR fiasco, or the “Where is yamakan when you need him?” category
(defined as mentioned in at least one animenewsnetwork article with any of the following terms: “scandal”, “backlash”, “official apology”, “apologized”, “widespread discomfort and misunderstanding”)

Drew’s Top 5 Handicaps:
1. Dansei Bunri no Crime Edge (x2) – Studio Gonzo? Studio Gonzo.
2. Photo Kano (x4) – The director of this show, Akitoshi Yokoyama, is a) writing it all himself and b) a total spring chicken.
3. Hayate no Gotoku s4 (x4) – Hayate is less likely to make a mistake, but more likely to have the fanbase overreact over a seemingly minor slight.
4. Date a Live (x5) – I think this show is trying to be an a-list title, which means it’s trying to reach a lot of people, which means it’s going to have to walk a finer tightrope than the average show.
5. Yahari Ore no Seishun wa Love Come ni Machigatteiru (x6) – Same as above, only light-hearted shows have a little more room to breathe.

Will: 25 each on Crime Edge, Photo Kano, Hayate, and Date a Live. I have no idea what I’m doing.

Sam: I’d have to say 40 on Hayate, 30 on Date a Live, 30 on Oreimo. Hayate already has some underlying resentment, Date A Live seems like it could go out of control, and Oreimo has the rabid fanboys.

Category #4: Will have at least one recap episode (>10 minutes of reused footage) or miss its broadcast timeslot

Drew’s Top 5 Handicaps:
1. Aku no Hana (x2.5) – Hiroshi Nagahama is relatively inexperienced, even if his experience is on a pair of really solid shows, and they’re reportedly going with some “untraditional” process, which is about as reassuring as hearing they keep a live boa constrictor in the studio.
2. Yahari Ore no Seishun wa Love Come ni Machigatteiru (x4) – High Budget Looks+First-Time Director (Ai Yoshimura)=Trouble on the Horizon at least 90% of the time.
3. Namiuchigawa no Muromi-san (x5) – I want this to succeed so so bad, but I know the kind of delays Arve Rezzle suffered before actually popping out (only other thing Tatsuya Yoshihara helmed)
4. Yuyushiki (x5) – I have never seen a resume quite like this before.
5. Photo Kano (x7) – See Category #3.

Sam: 50 on Aku no Hana, 50 on Valvrave. Mecha shows tend to have enough plot to need recaps and Drew has made a good case for Aku no Hana

Will: 100 on Love Come. Too drunk to care.

Category #5: Contains >0 Cross-Counters (i.e. It shows at least one)
(For reference, this is a Cross-Counter)

Drew’s Top 5 Handicaps:
1. Attack on Titan (x1.5) – You cheaters. Free points right here, and I can’t not make odds.
2. Valvrave the Liberator (x2) – Hot-blooded robots? Hot-blooded robots.
3. Yondemasu yo Azazel-san Z (x2) – Crazy-ass slapstick seems to lend itself to a lot of punches trading hands.
4. Devil Survivor 2 (x2) – There will be fights, and there will be attempts to be extremely cool.
5. Date a Live (x2) – Harem comedy and action are both genres in which such a thing is possible. Overlap them and the odds go up.

Will: 50 on Nyaruko, 50 on Majestic Prince. I think Nyaruko has already done this, and they’ll repeat the joke, of if they haven’t, it’s a parody they’re bound to make. I like wasting money on Majestic Prince, and it seems like a balance of serious and not too serious that would do this kind of thing in some manner.

Sam: 25 on Valvrave, 50 on Shingeki, 25 on Nyaruko. Valvrave and Shingeki are both action series, and Nyaruko would parody something like this

Category #6: >1 Kisses shown on-screen

Drew’s Top 5 Handicaps:
1. Hyakka Ryouran: Samurai Bride (x1.5) – Remember how Muneakira makes contracts? …yeah.
2. Uta no Prince-sama 2000% (x2) – It’s a romance series for girls, and they’re usually less averse to kiss scenes in my experience.
3. Photo Kano (x2) – The show’s primary focus is far-and-away romance. The only question is will there be one or two?
4. OreImo 2 (x2.5) – When a big franchise heads into season 2, the staff tends to get exponentially less gunshy about putting couples closer together.
5. Suisei no Gargantia (x3) – The combination of light-hearted and serious drama potential could really contribute to some loose lips (and sunken ships, perhaps).

Will: 67 on Hyakka Ryouran, 33 on Nyaruko. Just because.

Sam: 25 on Suisei, 25 on Oreimo, 25 on Date A Live, 25 on Hyakka. All of these series have romantic components and seem like they would be willing to go that far.

Category #7: >0 Character deaths
(They have to at least have a) a name, b) a face, c) a life at the beginning to count. No Freya nukes accepted here.)

Drew’s Top 5 Handicaps:
1. Suisei no Gargantia (x1.5) – … …… ……….
2. Space Battleship Yamato 2199 (x1.5) – I kind of know how this story ends.
3. Karneval (x1.5) – Might not be a main character, but if they keep hunting demons, eventually they’ll have to kill one with a name and face. It’s pretty hard to be non-lethal with c4.
4. Attack on Titan (x1.5) – Dear god this one is unfair.
5. Devil Survivor 2 (x2) – The origin series is much darker than the Persona games, and Seiji Kishi has an aptitude for brutal drama that transcends his normal comedic prowess.

Will: 100 on Valvrave. I don’t feel like outright cheating, and this is a mecha from the writer of Code Geass and Guilty Crown.

Sam: 100 on Valvrave. Same reason as Will.

Category #8: Amount of money >1 million yen mentioned in-show

Drew’s Top 5 Handicaps:
1. Hayate no Gotoku s4 (x1.5) – Sanzenin Nagi? Sanzenin Nagi.
2. A Certain Scientific Railgun S (x1.5) – I’m just fairly sure the girls will get caught up in a high-profile money case at some point.
3. Shima Kousaku no Asia Risshiden (x2) – It’s Japan’s corporate culture, the anime. The boss has got to have a yearly salary that high.
4. Yondemasu-yo Azazel-san Z (x2.5) – The crooked detective probably gets a case worth ten times this much.
5. OreImo 2 (x2.5) – Could a super-successful doujin author make this much money? Easily. If they do mention gross profit, I feel comfortable it’s in this range.

Will: 20 each on the top 5. My rationale is #YOLO.

Sam: 50 on Hayate and 50 on Shima. There really isn’t much to know about this kind of thing in previews, and those two stick out.

So there you have it. You’ll soon find out just how stupid we are, as we all watch this Spring season unfold with spectacular, unpredictable glory. Until the first airing, gentlefolk!