Unfortunate Announcement on Sept/Oct 2016 Amazon Data

Due to regrettable, frustrating human error, there will be about a week-long gap in the database from October 1st-7th, 2016, though I have partial data for the October-release set. Data collection will otherwise continue as normal.

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Slowing Things Down Until June

I really like the writing and analysis this blog gives me the platform to work on. But in the past 2-3 months, my life situation has been fairly overwhelming, in spite of some legitimately great things happening, stuff has overwhelmed me and I haven’t really had time to gather the data or sit down and write stuff up (as you can probably tell if you check in here semi-regularly). I still occasionally play with spreadsheets or bits of code on weekends, but stringing a coherent project together is beyond me. I keep sneaking looks at the dozen-or-so posts I have drafts of in my dash, but I just never have time to actually work on them. This situation seems like it’ll continue to be the way it is for at least the next month and a half. Basically, my available recreation time has shrunk and can only really support a half-dozen seasonal anime and the core group of manga* I import.

I’ll continue to do the monthly US amazon posts and data tracking, and I’ll update the manga/LN chart archives sometime after the end of April. Beyond that, there’s only one thing (a translation of an interview I found kinda fun) that I might end up posting prior to the end of May 2015. Long-term, though, I should be back in June with some real spare time and new stuff to write about.

*Amanchu, Billy Bat, Ace of the Diamond, Kaiji, Akagi, Soredemo Sekai wa Utsukushii, Giant Killing, and Yesterday wo Utatte if v11 ever comes out.

ICYMI: Highlight Posts of 2014

Just though I’d toss this up here. I had a lot of fun writing/researching stuff this year, and I hope people found the content here useful or at least fun. Here’s an icymi list of links to some of my personal favorite 2014 pieces:

https://animetics.net/2014/01/27/fun-with-numbers-the-relatively-predictable-light-novel-adaptation-market/

https://animetics.net/2014/02/07/fun-with-numbers-expect-to-see-sequels-drop-off-in-sales/

https://animetics.net/2014/02/08/fun-with-numbers-do-elements-of-ecchi-contentfanservice-provide-a-boost-for-blockbuster-shows/

https://animetics.net/2014/02/27/game-like-a-statistician-cave-storys-stone-shower/

https://animetics.net/2014/03/18/fun-with-numbers-blood-c-and-malleable-movie-price-points/

https://animetics.net/2014/05/08/fun-with-numbers-game-time-in-anime/

https://animetics.net/2014/07/05/fun-with-numbers-shogakukans-non-homegrown-power-pair/

https://animetics.net/2014/07/08/fun-with-numbers-print-boosts-effect-on-sequel-odds/

https://animetics.net/2014/07/16/fun-with-numbers-the-non-cancellation-of-popular-manga-post-anime/

https://animetics.net/2014/08/01/fun-with-numbers-a-good-summer-for-hot-cocoa/

https://animetics.net/2014/09/05/no-name-banknotes-under-the-dogs-encouraging-success/

https://animetics.net/2014/09/10/fun-with-numbers-the-big-range-of-big-underestimates-in-oricon-weekly-manga-totals/

https://animetics.net/2014/09/24/timeslot-history-anime-on-tv-tokyo-1994-2000/

https://animetics.net/2014/10/15/kishi-seijis-rough-road/

https://animetics.net/2014/11/07/active-engagement-through-timed-comments-ping-pong-the-animation/

https://animetics.net/2014/12/20/fun-with-numbers-line-theory-101/

And also, if you haven’t read the first magazine article I scanned this year – Amos Wong’s Satelight piece – I highly recommend you do so. It was pretty informative regarding the politics of early CGI in animation, still probably my favorite one I scanned. I count myself as lucky I happened upon that particular page of that particular NTUSA issue while browsing a used bookstore; odds are the other 250-something scans of articles on this site don’t happen otherwise.

Added a Page to Archive US Amazon Data

I’ve been tracking US amazon data for a little over six months now, but I haven’t really been doing more than that and some basic fitting. I added a page to the main site that puts all the links to the data in one place and makes it theoretically easier to check on a given release/month. The archive starts from March of 2014, and you can check it out here┬áif you are so inclined.

Fun With Numbers: Pay Dirt in Blu-Ray/Amazon Monitoring

A couple days ago, I was refreshing home media magazine’s site like a madman in hopes of getting a rough estimate of Attack on Titan’s placing. The result, a top 20 BD chart with no anime in it, was a disappointment to me despite my hedged bets about how shaky my amazon fit model was. Turns out, this might not be so much an indictment of the model as of the usability of the HM magazine/VideoScan First Alert charts they use.

Because it turns out that, contrary to their April 6 BD chart, a certain classic series sneaked on to the The Numbers’ top 20 BD disk chart, giving me my first solid high-end number in ever:

BDchart-DBZs3

For reference, using the amazon fit formula on the existing data (daily sales=300,000/daily amazon rank) and counting preorders of the series, the model estimates the first week sales of DBZ’s season 3 BD rerelease would be about 6034 copies. That’s a bit lower than the actual result, likely because of a possible storefront effect for popular titles that reader fredofirish brought to my attention. Still, that’s only off by about 20% of the actual value; not bad at all for a rough guess. Given this result for a series that peaked in the upper 300s, I am 99% sure we’ll be seeing the AoT release that made double digits on these same charts in a few months, and we might even see Berserk III on there in two weeks.*

Also, YEEEEEEAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHH!!!!

*It peaked at a similar place to where the DBZ release did, though this week’s threshold was also fairly generous.