A couple days ago, I was refreshing home media magazine’s site like a madman in hopes of getting a rough estimate of Attack on Titan’s placing. The result, a top 20 BD chart with no anime in it, was a disappointment to me despite my hedged bets about how shaky my amazon fit model was. Turns out, this might not be so much an indictment of the model as of the usability of the HM magazine/VideoScan First Alert charts they use.
Because it turns out that, contrary to their April 6 BD chart, a certain classic series sneaked on to the The Numbers’ top 20 BD disk chart, giving me my first solid high-end number in ever:
For reference, using the amazon fit formula on the existing data (daily sales=300,000/daily amazon rank) and counting preorders of the series, the model estimates the first week sales of DBZ’s season 3 BD rerelease would be about 6034 copies. That’s a bit lower than the actual result, likely because of a possible storefront effect for popular titles that reader fredofirish brought to my attention. Still, that’s only off by about 20% of the actual value; not bad at all for a rough guess. Given this result for a series that peaked in the upper 300s, I am 99% sure we’ll be seeing the AoT release that made double digits on these same charts in a few months, and we might even see Berserk III on there in two weeks.*
*It peaked at a similar place to where the DBZ release did, though this week’s threshold was also fairly generous.
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