Only Yesterday Sold 22,294 Copies in Week 1

Studio Ghibli’s Only Yesterday sold a total of 22,294 copies (16,450 BDs, 5844 DVDs) in the U.S. This happened the week of June 10th, 2016, when a mix of two versions went on sale for the first time. Analysis and source pic after the break.

The amazon ranks for the two releases in their opening week break down as follows:

DVD:    671    549    458    533    424    380    592
BD:    18    18    19    22    26    30    37

This result deepens my suspicions about the top-20 spot on amazon. The 3 most recent releases (Eva 3.33, Boy and the Beast, and now Only Yesterday), all seem to have posted figures in a similar range, but the ones with better amazon performances do better, in a model that’s well approximated by capping a performance at 3000 copies sold (per day) in the top 20 and connecting the rest of that to the existing piecewise linear function:

#10k-#40k: S=10-(R-10000)*(9/30000)
#2k-#10k: S=30-(R-2000)*(20/8000)
#1k-#2k: S=70-(R-1000)*(40/1000)
#500-#1k: S=220-(R-500)*(150/500)
#200-#500: S=250-(R-200)*(30/300)
#150-#200: S=800-(R-150)*(550/50)
#100-#150: S=1000-(R-100)*(200/50)
#50-#100: S=1300-(R-50)*(300/50)
#40-#50: S=1900-(R-40)*(600/10)
#20-#40: S=3000-(R-20)*(1100/20)

The predictions for this model are shown below, next to the actual results:


That second figure (not a typo!) is kinda nice, but this was tailored based on observing those 3 figures and taking a guess, and the formula as used is still obviously incomplete. For example, figures for the two most recent DBZ movies, The Wind Rises and Princess Mononoke both sold far more than the 21,000 that would be this formula’s upper limit, as did Spirited Away. One could read this as the top 20 in amazon ranks tending to under-predict of Hayao Miyazaki and Dragonball movies (as things that sell more elsewhere). It could be argued both that these 3 more recent releases show a stronger correlation with amazon relative to 2014-15 due to the online retailer’s growing prevalence, or that these 3 just happened to bunch together. Making a definitive statement is something I really can’t do without a lot more data I do not have and am unlikely to get.

Oh, and DVD results still showcase huge variance. Go figure.



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