Weekly Manga Sales Charts For 2008 (September-December)

Unlike Light Novels, where doing any kind of research pretty much required making an easy-access database, research on manga sales was doable with existing web databases. When looking into it 6 months ago, I used animenewsnetwork’s related news stories for various manga to access sales charts where given series appeared. Unfortunately, those link libraries were often incomplete, and I had to employ a ramshackle method where I used One Piece’s constant presence in the Oricon ranks to get to the release week for a given series and determine whether it charted or not and what the threshold was. It was boring, menial work, but it was never boring or menial enough that I got turned off of my end goal.

That said, I can see the effort involved in that method being prohibitive for a lot of future research. And, if possible, I want to be talking a bit more about manga (both as an industry and as a creative process) in the near future. So I collected the myanimelist weekly sales charts for manga in a similar fashion to how I did for Light Novels, deciding to post them here again to make it easier for other people who want to take a quick, easy lookback at how different manga evolved over time.

Once again, this is not my data. It was originally collected by Snowical, dtshyk, and symbv of the myanimelist news team, who have done excellent work.

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Fun With Numbers: The Decline of US Print Manga Sales and Who Might be Buying into the Digital Manga Boom

I’ve been over this before, but it bears repeating – print manga in the US is a lot more like anime in Japan than it is manga in Japan; it’s expensive, with a relatively small customer base. Manga in Japan only costs anywhere from 400-900yen, small enough that marketing to elementary school kids with their weekly allowances is a plausible strategy. In the US, the cheapest print manga start from $9, and can cost quite a bit more. This makes manga in the US a smaller, more exclusive market. At that price point, the proposition of just buying a $60 anime box set (there’s a pretty understandable overlap between the fanbases) starts to look a lot more appealing.

In more practical terms, manga was perpetually being walloped by anime in the US market. While the total gross of all manga tracked through bookscan in 2007 was just a hair under $109 million (all gross totals from that article unless otherwise linked), the total gross of anime DVDs in the US in that same year was over $300 million, a number surpassing not just the manga total, but the $183 million gross of the entire US comics market that same year. While more recent statistics regarding anime are hard to come by, that still speaks to a huge contrast in US sales potency for an industry where the 2013 annual gross of One Piece by itself (18,151,599*500~9 billion yen) tops the total of the top two averagers of the post-Evangelion era (Bakemonogatari and Madoka sold about 6.5 billion yen worth of disks between them).

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Midseason Update: This Winter in s-CRY-ed Quotes

Back in the day, before I had the money to import anime, or eve to buy them at a discount, I had access to a VCR and a stack of 5 VHS tapes. I learned to program that VCR for the express purpose of recording Toonami, Adult Swim Anime, and the like on days when I couldn’t make it home. And if there was one show that was my number 1 at the time, it was battle/rivalry series s-CRY-ed.

Fueled almost entirely by banter between the leading duo. Kazuma and Ryuho were as memorable a pair of rivals as I can recall having watched to this day, and the script that was field-raised ham on a whole-wheat drama bun produced a memorable, unique-tasting fight series. And plenty of potable quotes, which is why I’m dedicating this entry to cemented legacy club member director Taniguchi Goro.

Scr-screen

And to punching things while yelling loudly

Oh, and incoming spoilers for a 12 year-old show, if you’re averse to that kind of thing.

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Fun With Numbers: Do Elements of Ecchi Content/Fanservice Provide a Boost for Blockbuster Shows?

One of the things I love about giving panels/talks at cons is the Q&A component. Sure, every time there’s at least one guy whose question that’s a recitation essay, but you also get a lot of stimulation; observations beyond your field of view from people outside your normal circles of interaction. One of the best questions I got during Ohayocon came after the Myth of Fanservice panel talking about the results of this article. I don’t remember the exact wording, but it was to the effect of “I get from this presentation that shallow fanservice doesn’t sell, but fanservice that’s a component of an otherwise good show actually annoys me more, because it makes it harder to recommend shows. What about fanservice as a minor component of a show, rather than the central one?” At the time, I replied that it was an interesting question, but that I hadn’t tested it and couldn’t come up with a way off the top of my head.

After I thought about it for a while, I realized there’s actually a fairly intuitive way of getting at this question. Since exactly how fanservice/ecchi elements a show has to include before being a fanservice/ecchi show varies from person to person, it was very possible that one could get a snapshot of that spectrum by looking at how two separate databases with varying standards classified a show. As fate would have it, myanimelist (ecchi genretag) and animenewsnetwork (ecchi+fanservice themetags)* classify shows as ecchi in ways that are different enough that one can split shows from my original black/white sample into 3 meaningful categories.**

1. No/Minimal Ecchi (Not tagged under either system)

2. Ambiguously Ecchi (Tagged under one system, but not the other)

3. Unambiguously Ecchi (Tagged under both systems)

Theoretically, if a show is really heavy on the fanservice, it’ll end up being in category 3, and if it’s got naked men wrestling behind one-way glass, it’ll end up being in category 1. If there’s room to dispute how much fanservice a show has and/or how central it is, it’ll more likely end up in category 2. And by comparing those 3 categories, we should be able to get some idea of how much fanservice as a component does for shows with other notable selling points. The breakdowns for the categories can be found on this doc, and analysis can be found after the break.

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Fun With Numbers: Expect to See Sequels Fall Off in Sales

With the rare Shonen Junai Gumi/GTO-tier exception, the viewership of sequels follows a very solid rule of thumb; fewer people tend to watch the second season, and the ones who do tend to be ones who are generally in love with the franchise. But not everyone who loved season 1 of a given show will end up watching season 2. In real life, stuff like time constraints, stress, and other shows all serve as potential distractions from continuing to support a franchise. Though people who buy hard copies of a show are generally in that group of hardcore fans, they’re still human, and any number of factors could cause them to keep their cash in their wallets. If myanimelist rankings tend to overestimate the quality of a sequel, then sales might tend to underestimate its appeal.

So it’s worth asking the question; what percent of its sales does a typical show “lose” when it moves on to season 2? Since I already had a list of series that got sequels from 2005-2012 laying around from my work on the sequel probability equation, and most of those sequels have been at least partially made by now, it’s a fairly simple question (barring one wrinkle) to address.

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A Note on Usable versus Unusable Crowdsourced Tags

I’m going to be posting anywhere from 1 to 3 articles using animenewsnetwork’s tag system over the next week or two, so I think now would be as good a point as any to make an important point about when it is and isn’t ok to use.

There’s lots of interesting work to be done on the performance of anime and manga of different genres. Classifying the genre of a work of entertainment is tough. Especially when the definition is as amorphous as it is for something like moe. However, in practice, it actually isn’t a huge deal if a site is consistently applying the same incorrect definition; even blatantly incorrect definitions (I’m looking at you, shonen=the genre containing battle action) can yield meaningful results about the type of series fitting the definition being used if they’re consistent. Dealing with them just requires a willingness to dive in and determine exactly what your numbers say.

A much more common and hazardous pitfall tags slip into is one I call selective incompleteness. Quite often, via either lack of attention to the tag or too much attention paid to too few cases, whether or not a series falls under it will depend on whether it’s popular or not. This is a problem for lots of reasons when trying to break down the sales of a genre; every Genre A series that aired over a 10-year period might come up with worse average sales than the two most popular Genre B series of that period, even if the Genre A was generally much more profitable.*

The above is an extreme example, but I hope you see my point. If we’re going to talk about the average performance of a genre, we want their averages (or totals), not just a selection of more-popular-than-average shows that happen to be from those genres. Since popularity can correlate with sales, the risk of higher-selling shows getting selectively tagged is real, and worse so the smaller the tag is.**

ANN’s moe tag, while not quite that extreme a case, is a victim of selective incompleteness to a dangerous degree. One of the easiest ways to test the veracity of a tag is to check whether or not it’s applied consistently in-between seasons of a show. If a series gets a second season largely in line with the first, they should be tagged equivalently. If there is selective tagging going on, then sequels are probably not the only victims, but they are the most visible and arguably objective sign that it’s happening. But, Hidamari Sketch and Nogizaka Haruka no Himitsu both fall victim to selective tagging under this tag. Specifically, only the first season of Hidamari Sketch is classified as moe, while only the second season of Nogizaka Haruka is. Neither of these series had sequels that radically changed gears.

I could point out other things that are suspect about the tag (like how Kyoto Animation produced something like 30% of all moe between 2005-2008), but the sequel thing is a red flag. In general, I’ll give tags some leeway, given the fact that some classifications are difficult to make. But any label that splits the difference between seasons of the same show (excluding reboots like Im@s or spinoffs like The Unlimited) is obviously too inconsistent to use. As a rule of thumb, any tag which I can point to as containing several cases of franchises being tagged inconsistently is one that I will not be using for any meaningful analysis.

*Since the profits of the anime hinge on the top 10% of series, the precise designation of a blockbuster like Bakemonogatari do have a lot of analysis-swinging potential. You can’t just ignore the exceptional cases (producing those franchise-series outliers is the business of most publishing industries), but their swing potential is the biggest reason why accurate classification is important. The fact that some of these series have disputed status that varies between databases is the lynchpin of an upcoming addendum to one of my older pieces of work.

**”Smaller” tags also carry a secondary issue, the potential of carrying a definition so specific that it’s hard to draw general conclusions due to small sample sizes. Any list less than 20 shows in length is tough to be general about.

Fun With Numbers: One Season Without a 20k (or even 10k) Hit Isn’t Particularly Meaningful

Making a smash hit anime involves a number of steps. Typically you have to have to get solid source material, assemble the right staff, and do well on the PR front. But most importantly of all, you have to, to some extent, simply get lucky in getting engaged with your target demographic. This is at the heart of the discussion regarding the recent dearth of hit anime this past Fall and current Winter being the first shows in a while to potentially have no series averaging above 20k and 10k in disk sales, respectively. But how unexpected is that outcome really?

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