The most recent 3 weeks of sales data were tumultuous, seeing 6 new releases of 3 different movies and some serious chart variance. I’m dumping the data and running through the highlights – there are interesting hints that might help the predictive formula, but all are more suggestive than definite.
Just some stuff on what I’m doing right now.
Starting December tracking pretty early into November not for any special reason, but rather because the first release day of December is the first day of the month, so I kind of have to for consistency. Calendars, amirite?
Three notes about tracking this month:
1 – Viz will be reissuing Sailor Moon R part 2 sets courtesy of an audio syncing error on one episode. I’ll be tracking both the old and the new sets as this reissue happens.
2 – Library War and Saint Seiya: The Lost Canvas got pushed back a few weeks and are now December releases.
3 – I added some last-minute November releases to the tracking pool. Won’t promise, but will try to add such things when I notice they’ve been added.
Oh, and since it’s a movie, maybe Nash will count Aura and we’ll get to see it sell a little?
US BD/DVD sales data for the week of 10/5-10/11/2015 is now available. Two new anime movies, The Last: Naruto the Movie and When Marnie Was There, were released that week, and now we know how they did. Naruto sold 17,140 copies (10,889 BD/6251 DVD) and Marnie sold 15,251 copies (9398 BD/5853 DVD).
Since the most recently available week of Nash Info Services data allowed me to really fine-tune my prediction formula, I figured I was about ready to put it to the test on amazon data and actually predict some US anime sales. So I set out to do so on 3 months’ worth of year-old releases, picking months with releases I have concrete year-one data for. Seemed pretty straightforward at the time.
…Turns out it’s never that simple. There were a couple of factors I had to consider when trying to make truly complete estimates. But with some fast and loose statistical gamesmanship, I was able to get some estimates. This time around, I have substantive reason to suspect they’re pretty good.
On account of a Thanksgiving week where no anime is coming out, Novermber will end up being a pretty lean month, one currently set to have only 21 releases. I added two more to this dataset for the end of October; a pair of Lupin/Conan movies that got added to the end-of-October slate last minute. So I’ll be tracking 23 releases total this month in total. I’ll also be adding the DBZ/Marnie/Naruto movies to the special tracking list in a week when the October collection finishes up.
Due to circumstances largely beyond my control I’ve had little time to work on the analysis of the amazon tracking data. The tracking is ongoing and easy but the writeups are decidedly not, and before I realized it I had 3 full weeks worth of data to expound on.
It’s not all bad – I had some time to do some stuff with the overall US charts and got a significantly better understanding of where the project as a whole stands.
One of the better manga I’ve really gotten into this year is Okachimachi Hato’s Horii-shimai no Gogatsu (Eng: The Horii Sisters in May). I discovered its first chapter in a copy of the now-defunct Manga Erotics F I picked up for Awashima Hyakkei a year ago, got interested, bought the first collected volume a few months ago, and fell in love. Among other things, it prominently features a gender role-flipping adult relationship with great emotional complexity that’s right down the middle of my strike zone. So I got interested and tried to dig up some stuff on it. I found out on Okachimachi’s twitter feed that she had done an interview for women’s magazine An-An with some thoughts on gender, and I decided to translate it.
There’s plenty of literature out there pointing out the importance of examining the role gender plays in Japan, but I think it’s worth noting that a survey in the same magazine asks “Can a man and a woman have a stable friendship?” and gets a very wide spread of responses.
So this week’s Vampire Hunter D data is… different. DVD data didn’t update when the rest of the DVD data did. BD figures *did* update, but dropped off about 60 freaking percent. Last week saw the BD lifetime total at 4404 copies. This week the Nash DB has the same total down all the way to 1768! That’s not some small-time mistake, yo. I um, I saw this a few days ago and I don’t know enough four letter words to describe how this makes me feel. Look at this biz:
It’s a nightmare, really. I’m still flabbergasted. But after seeing these figures a few days ago, I think I have a crack theory about what might be going on.