Fun With Numbers: Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Gods Sold 29,558 Copies in Week 2

Pretty much what the headline says. Following a first-week total of 86,735 total sales, the movie added an additional 29,558 units to its US sales total (now 118,280) in the week of October 13-19. These second week sales consisted of 21519 BDs (including BD/DVD combo packs) and 8039 DVDs. It’s already interesting enough to mention how non-frontloaded these sales were, though DBZ is possibly an exception to the norm for anime releases; it remained in the Amazon top 200 for 5 days of its second week out, while most other anime releases are lucky to keep out of 5-digit rank territory.

The strength despite the lack of preorders also points to a possible heavy non-amazon bias for DBZ – its amazon versions were, at best, 86th and 677th in rank during the relevant week, yet it was 14th in actual total video sales overall. It’s very possible a large fraction of those copies were moved via b+m retailers.

Screencaps of the relevant charts (which can also be found here while they’re available) are included after the jump.

Continue reading

Fun With Numbers: Dragonball Z: Battle of Gods Sold 86,735 Copies on Week One

So yeah, the most recent Dragonball movie sold a healthy amount in the US: 24,589 DVDs and 62,146 BDs (including BD/DVD combo packs), for a total of 86,735 copies. Even if it doesn’t immediately top the US totals of the series’ older movies, that’s quite a lot. For example, it’s over ten times that of One Piece Film Z’s first week total.

To reiterate, that’s a huge number there, possibly large enough to have a second week and definitely large enough to sandblast parts of my still-in-development formula (which pegged it as closer to 20,000 in likely first-week sales). Best guess at this point is that some combination of being a movie, ranking extremely highly for an anime release, and being from the most popular anime franchise the US has ever seen pushed it closer to the storefront-heavy curve for mainstream movies, as opposed to the amazon-heavy curve other anime releases have seemed to follow.

At any rate, screencap after the jump (original chart here while it lasts).

Continue reading

Fun With Numbers: One Piece Film Z Sold 6,199 Copies on Week 1

Another datapoint from the late September-early October rush of titles with early ranks made the charts. This time, it’s One Piece Film Z, a release split between DVD and BD/DVD combo pack sales that totaled a little over 6000 between them in their opening sales week. You can check the full list here while it’s up (screenshot after the jump).

Continue reading

Fun With Numbers: Scrolling Comments As a Function of Time

If you’ve immersed yourself in the culture surrounding anime more than a little, you’re probably aware that Japanese video sharing sites operate their comment sections a little differently from the way Crunchyroll does. For the uninitiated, while sites like Youtube stick their comments underneath the video for viewers to scroll down and see if they want to, sites like Nico Nico Douga have user-submitted comments scrolling across the same screen playing the video. I personally prefer this style of commentary for a variety of reasons,* and I sometimes miss the feature when transitioning to official releases. Just recently, I realized fully functional logs of these comment tracks are actually available for download at himawari douga, a fairly large** and in-no-way-legal video streaming site.

These himado comment tracks have a particularly neat (if totally necessary) feature – each comment keeps its 1/100th of a second timestamp, which usually corresponds fairly precisely with the thing in the video being commented on.*** Thus, these tracks, properly analyzed, have the potential to provide an interesting window into which moments in an episode most engage the audience. I built a very basic code**** to analyze the data, and I came up with some fun plots.

Continue reading

Fun With Numbers: November 2014 US Amazon Data (Initial Numbers)

I took these data yesterday, so the rank data tracking for November releases starts on October 27. I’m kinda down and swamped at work right now, so this is just going to be a post without much comment. If any of them looks like a possible to chart, or actually does, then I’ll be talking about them again.

P.S. Sherlock Hound/CCS got their releases pushed back a week and require an extra month of tracking as a result. I hate that.

Continue reading

Fun With Numbers: The Long and Short of 2013

“How many pages long is the average light novel?”

A friend of mine flat-out stumped me with this question a few days ago, and I’m willing to bet even odds it stumped you too. Neat, right? People familiar with anime likely have at least some vague inkling about what light novels are. But anime-focused writers who offer sweeping takes on light novels often don’t have the answers to those sorts of basic trivia questions, and I’ve forced a few acquaintances to google over this in the past week.

Granted, this particular question is sort of misleading; wordcounts are more accurate quantifiers of length than pagecounts, since the latter depend on size and typeface. Still, it underscores how little people can know about something which plays such a big role in the anime industry. Too, the question is also ridiculously basic to answer; I only had to spend about an hour on amazon compiling a list of links to the first volumes of novels adapted into anime in 2013 (excluding sequels), and taking down their given pagecounts. And while I was at it, I did the same for manga. The data, source links included, can be found here, and is summarized below. Note that Uchouten Kazoku, a single-volume novel, was counted as a novel along with the other multi-volume series.

Continue reading

Fun With Numbers: Attack on Titan Part 2 Sold 10,677 Copies on Week 1

Didn’t even take 12 hours. As expected, Attack on Titan’s second set ranked on the US charts, selling a little over a thousand fewer copies in the first week than set 1 did, but still putting up solid numbers.

USBD_09_28_2014

This time, my guess (9841 copies) was only off by 8 percent. That qualifies as a pretty successful test. If the S=(6944*(R^-0.4))-60 formula can ballpark the rest of this list successfully (at least, for the ones that chart), I think we may have a keeper.

Fun With Numbers: Updated US Amazon Formulae

Since late February of this year, I’ve been tracking the daily ranks of various anime releases on US Amazon to see if they could be used to get an idea of how releases were selling in the US, since that data is sparsely available for modern titles (especially unpopular ones). In March, I made my first stab at a formula which might tie thos edaily ranks to sales totals. In May, I realized that first model was based primarily on Holiday season sales charts and thus severely overestimated the market, and introduced a simpler one making use of more data. That model seemed for a time like it would be serviceable, pegging the sales of DBZ’s season 3 BDs to within 20%, but then it overestimated Attack on Titan part 1 by a factor of 3. Since I had no other test cases for my model available for the next few months, I was able to put off refining that model, but with data for the second part of Attack on Titan, the surprisingly successful Steins Gate rerelease, and DBZ Battle of Gods set to come out over the next few weeks, it’s a good time to use the data I’ve gathered to try and test a different model.

Continue reading

Fun With Numbers: Industry Valuation of In-Betweening vs. Voice Acting

Note 1: Corrected to account for more typical anime framerates (8-12 fps), rather than 24 fps.

If you’re going to be making a piece of animation, you’re obviously going to need some animators to draw some things. But anime budgets are tight, and the production costs in the industry are such that animation might not always be the best way for directors to maximize the bang they get for their buck. Anime salary data is pretty sparse, but I found enough information on certain costs to do a quick, naive calculation comparing the relative worth of in-between animation and voice acting.

Continue reading

Fun With Numbers: Kishi Seiji’s Rough Road

Way back in 1960, the NBA’s Cincinnati Royals drafted future hall-of-fame basketball player Oscar Robertson with the first overall pick. In his first season, he was named rookie of the year. In his second season, he became the only player in NBA history to average a triple double (i.e. putting up ridiculous stats in 3 separate historical categories). In his fourth season, he was named the league’s most valuable player. In his fifth through seventh seasons, he never made it past the first round of the playoffs. In his eighth through tenth seasons, he didn’t even make the playoffs despite putting up consistently great personal stats. In his eleventh season, on a new team with the man who would become Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, his team won a then-record 20 games in a row and eviscerated opponents in the playoffs, winning him his first-ever NBA title.

Robertson was great for basically his entire career, and it’s not like he lost those skills when his teams weren’t winning. So then why didn’t they win? Because in team sports like basketball, teams matter. When his team’s second-best player is a 41-year-old coach coming back into the game as a publicity stunt, how good a player is doesn’t much matter. It still takes good players to win championships, but great players not named Michael Jordan don’t win championships alone.

Anime production is not very much like basketball, but it’s a similarly complex process where circumstances can contribute as much as individual skills do to the net result. Before work on a show can even start, a producer has to successfully pitch an idea to sponsors and justify the business side of operations. A capable cast and staff have to be assembled. Those staffers then have to both have to develop an clear vision for the series and adequately communicate that vision with the hundred-plus animators who typically work on a modern TV anime. And for the project to be a success, that vision then has to resonate with its target audience, something which just doesn’t always happen.

I mention all this because it pertains very much to the discussion of director Kishi Seiji, one of only four directors in the history of anime to helm 3 non-sequel 10k+ hits, and the only one to do so at three separate studios. In spite of having set a career milestone that puts him on the same spreadsheet as Tatsuyuki Nagai and Yoshiyuki Tomino, Kishi has been a constant target for all sorts of fan ire. Taking a quick look at his career, it’s fairly easy to see where this sentiment originates. After a barely-notable start to his career, Kishi spent the years between 2007 and 2010 knocking off three straight winners (Seto no Hanayome, Astro Fighter Sunred, and Angel Beats) and making a bit of a name for himself. Angel Beats, for all its success, has its fair share of detractors, but the majority of bad mojo Kishi has generated comes from the next 3 years of his career, the stretch from 2011 to 2013, that made him one of the many to earn the nickname “the Uwe Boll of anime”. I categorically reject this label, not because all of the shows he directed over that stretch were good, but because the stretch was a daunting one in a way people rarely think about (and included some impressive achievements regardless).

Continue reading