Fun With Numbers: Anime as Manga Advertisments in 2010

I’m adding the 2010 manga-adaptation anime into the sample of adaptation effects on their source material. Many, though not all, series show some degree of significant bump. Nitty-gritty data is collected here, and displayed below. An impressive 20 of the 26 series I looked at made the Oricon charts at some point, though one of them (Rainbow) ended before the anime began. One that didn’t, Seikon no Qwaser, is still running at 8 years, 18 volumes (it’s hardly the only series to run that long without charting, I’m just pointing out that manga can run for a long time without seeing the light of day chart-wise).

Note: For High School of the Dead, both volumes 4 and 5 came out well before the anime, and volume 6 came out during its broadcast. The gap in time was so big that they came out before mal tracked numbers for series, only posting top 10 lists. I used the available 2008 manga data to approximate the average value, in volumes, of the #10 slot to get a rough estimate of the threshold. Even holding v4 and v5 to the maximum threshold from those weeks, the 130,000 v6 and 200,000 v7 it puts up post-anime is evidence of a significant bump.

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Fun With Numbers: July 2014 US Amazon Data (Initial Numbers)

Another month, another set of anime releases to track on amazon. Of particular note are Hetailia The Beautiful World (~5000th with 4 weeks to release, big US fan presence) and Deadman Wonderland (~3000th with 3 weeks to release). Those two have legitimate shots at the big charts, though any series should have to rank 500th or lower for multiple days to have a realistic chance.

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Fun With Numbers: Two Weeks Are Better Than One

For a couple of reasons, I’ve been going through the manga and light novels first adapted in 2010 to gauge if and how their sales changed after the anime adaptation aired. This data is currently being gathered (manga info is collected, but it needs to be turned into plots, haven’t started on LNs). Before diving into an analysis of those boosts, though, I’ve noticed a very important point that pertains some specific earlier posts of mine. Namely, first week manga sales, while rarely smaller than second week sales as is common with light novels, aren’t all that consistent.

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Via Anime Insider: Dubbing Excel Saga (Fall 2002)

A short piece on the process of dubbing anime. There’s lots of informational material on this available in English already (VA con panels are ubiquitous fixtures of the scene, and  get on youtube now and again), but it does give an idea of the timescales involved in working on such a project – about 12 hours of voice acting work for a main character, per episode.

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Fun With Numbers: Directors With Blockbuster Chops (Part 2: 2 Shows)

Continued from part 1, here are the rest of the directors that managed to notch multiple credits on 10,000 plus per volume hits. 13 guys directed two non-sequel hits, which, adding in the 4 from before, gives a total of 17 people in the history of anime to make this particular list.

As before, note that while anidb and ann are being used, they are potentially incomplete sources. For example, Tsuda Naokatsu only receives Uta Kata production assistance credit on ann. I will generally give direction credit to anyone who is listed as a director on one of the two sites, and directed a plurality of the episodes. Series director vs. plain Director titles for shows that gave the two to different people were tricky to interpret – I opted to give the title to the staffer listed as just director.

An Important Note About The Classification: I only included non-sequel anime when looking for directors. This means nothing with some manifestation of a 2 in the title. Ditto for Gundam or Macross franchise entries after the original. My rationale is that it’s a lot harder to make a prime-time anime from scratch, even with popular source material, than it is to continue living in a house you or someone else built. I count A Certain Scientific Railgun and Mononoke as spinoffs rather than sequels, as the series they spun off of are considerably less well-established franchises.

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Fun With Numbers: Directors With Blockbuster Chops (Part 1: 3 or More Shows)

Unless you’re Urobouchi Gen,* if your name headlines the trailer of a given series, odds are you’re its director. Director credits are the first non-voice actor bit of information given on staff pages of ann, anidb, and mal show pages. And that’s how it should be; as important as good writing can be, directors have the desk the buck stops at when it comes to power and responsibility to make decisions in show production, often holding full or partial authority to rewrite an episode script. Ano Hana was written as part slapstick/erotic comedy before director Tatsuyuki Nagai got his hands on the script. Beyond that, directors supervise the visual component of anime, making sure a series’ art says what it’s supposed to and flows from shot to shot.

A lot of complex factors go into an anime being either a success, hit, or failure, but it’s really hard for an untalented creator to accidentally produce a hit more than once. And while hit tv anime aren’t the only achievement that deserves recognition (JMAF grand prizes and Oscars would be two others), they are one of the bigger ones; excluding sequel seasons, less than 100 people have managed to notch this achievement in the 50+ years since Astro Boy first aired.

This is the very short list of directors who have headed at least 3 separate hit franchises, with some supplementary information. A similar post on those who have made 2 shows will be up sometime in the near future.

This list was compiled from something’s list of 10k+ shows, with supplementary resume data pulled from ann and anidb. While I am making heavy use of these databases, I don’t trust them to be 100% complete: Seiji Kishi’s pages show an 8-year gap between his first credits and his first series directed in which he does (supposedly) nothing. Not only that, but anidb and ann disagree on whether his first work was as an in-betweener on Ruin Explorers or on Eiga Nintama Rantarou (anidb lists the former, ann the latter). Tatsuyuki Nagai’s first credit is as an episode director, a position not typically awarded to newbies. More likely their full histories aren’t chronicled here, though that only applies to secondary roles played in production. It’s an important thing to be aware of.

An Important Note About The Classification: I only included non-sequel anime when looking for directors. This means nothing with some manifestation of a 2 in the title. Ditto for Gundam or Macross franchise entries after the original. My rationale is that it’s a lot harder to make a prime-time anime from scratch, even with popular source material, than it is to continue living in a house you or someone else built. I count A Certain Scientific Railgun and Mononoke as spinoffs rather than sequels, as the series they spun off of are considerably less well-established franchises.

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Fun With Numbers: CD Singles’ Loose Disk Average Relation

As it does with many others, anime is somewhat intertwined with the music industry. One of the biggest production outfits in the business, Aniplex, is a subsidiary of Sony Music Japan, whose music labels typically get first dibs at on involvement in a show that Aniplex has greenlit. Even outside of shows with blatant music themes tied into vocal superstars, the relation between a show and its associated singers is an interesting topic for study. Previously, I took a look at how a series’ OP/ED CD sales corresponded to the presence of a visible boost in print source material. This time, I’m going to take a look at the same CD sales data, but compared with disk sales.

Specifically, I’m looking at the week one sales of a series’ first opening single and first ending single, via the myanimelist news board.* That is, when they’re both on sale as individual CDs and not bundled with disks like the openings to the second season of Monogatari were (in such cases, I only counted the one towards the average). If a CD didn’t chart, I put it down as a dash and counted it as a 0. If a CD contained both the opening and ending theme, I put that total as the average. Data for disk averages for each show in 2013 is taken from someanithing. It was pulled a couple weeks ago, and it may be slightly out of date, but should be fairly close to the current values. The analysis can be found here, and is summarized below. Note that I decided to exclude series with episode lengths under 20 minutes from the final sample.

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Fun With Numbers: May US Amazon Data and Attack on Titan’s Nonzero Shot at the US BD Charts

Amazon data for the series I was tracking in May is here. It’s largely unremarkable; only 4 series spent prolonged periods of time ranking in the quadruple digits, and 3 (Yugioh, Fairy Tail, and DBZ) were long runners.

More interestingly, Attack on Titan started soliciting this week. If my calculations are correct, it has a very real chance of snagging a spot on the BD charts in the US, becoming the first anime release to do so since I began tracking series this February.

Note: While what follows is based on data I have gathered, it is largely speculative and makes a number of assumptions, among them that amazon performance is indicative of the BD/disk market in the US and that anime does not perform significantly differently from other types of titles in similar places in these rankings. These may well be way, way off, so take it with a heavy dose of skepticism.

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Fun With Numbers: Print Sales Bumps and Poking at the Demand Curve

It’s fairly common for manga or light novels getting an anime adaptation to receive some sort of boost in sales after the anime airs. However, both the presence or size of those bumps varies widely. These bumps represent an interesting opportunity for study, since they represent (potentially) an alternative indicator of both the financial impact of anime, as well as a look at the broader-scale demand curve for franchise-related goods. Not everybody can or will easily pay 30,000 yen for a full special-feature-laden set of disks, but such casual fans could still have a big impact on a series if the manga is within their price range.

The real fascinating part of this, though, is that casual fans need not support at all. While one almost certainly has to watch a show to be willing to buy the disks or even the manga, the reverse need not apply. The fact that the relation between disk averages and print boosts is so fragmentary implies a potentially similar disconnect between print bumps and total interest generated by a show.

In theory, sales should be better represented by casual indicators of popularity as costs get lower. In practice, the statistics are pretty garbled, though they do offer a hint as to which sorts of series may end up with bumps at the end of the day. To attempt to better understand the junk described above, I broke down 4 categories potentially indicating no-cost and low-cost popularity, and compared their ratings with the print-bump successes of series which got anime adaptations in Summer and Fall of 2013. Note that while I originally used Torne rankings in the earlier analyses, I discarded the data because of how incomplete they were.

For the purposes of this article, a “significant boost” is one where a series experiences a 20% jump in sales or charts for the first time after the anime. All figures are for a volume’s first 2 weeks of sales, calculated with the average of the 2 most immediate before and after volumes, if 2 volumes of data are available in each case. Be aware that this is not a comprehensive measure of which series got boosts, just one intended to at least catch the biggest ones. 1/3 of all series got such a visible bump, meaning the null-hypothesis accuracy rate these indicators need to beat is 66.6%~67%.

In addition to the previous top 5/10/15 tests used for v1 disk sales, I’ve also included histograms of how successful series were scattered across the indicator. Ideally, they would all be 60th percentile or better, but reality isn’t quite that nice.

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